CyberGlossary

Vulnerabilities

EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System)

Also known as: EPSS score

Definition

A data-driven model, maintained by FIRST, that estimates the probability a given CVE will be exploited in the wild within the next 30 days.

EPSS combines machine learning with real-world signals — published exploits, threat-intelligence telemetry, vendor advisories, social-media chatter — to produce two numbers per CVE: a probability (0–1) and a percentile rank. It complements CVSS by answering not how bad a flaw could be in theory, but how likely it is to actually be exploited soon. Vulnerability-management programmes use EPSS to triage huge backlogs: a critical CVSS issue with a very low EPSS may wait, while a medium CVSS issue with a high EPSS and KEV listing often jumps the queue. Scores are refreshed daily.

Examples

  • A CVE with EPSS probability 0.97 and percentile 99 — almost certainly being exploited.
  • A 9.8 CVSS bug with EPSS 0.001 — severe but unlikely to be attacked imminently.

Related terms